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Sample Case
Introduction
Hello! I’m Clay, and today I’ll be affirming the resolution, Resolved: The North Atlantic Treaty organization should substantially increase its defense commitments to the Baltic states. Today, the Pro team will prove that increased NATO defense commitments to the Baltics are necessary to deter Russian aggression.
Framework
The Framework for today’s debate is National Security. Since the Declaration of Independence, sovereignty and national security have gone hand in hand. As Edwin Meese, a Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, explains: “The Declaration of Independence announced the sovereignty of the United States and, with it, the ‘full Power to levy War.’ Accordingly, the Constitution’s Framers viewed the security of the nation to be the foremost responsibility of the federal government.”[1]
Contentions
Contention One Is Russian Aggression.
Sub-Point A is The Past: Russia has a history of unjustified, aggressive policies in the region. Consider, for example, the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia, which forced thousands of ethnic Georgians from their homes. Similarly, the 2014 invasion of Crimea resulted in an ongoing civil war between Russian-backed separatists and government forces that resulted in over 40,000 casualties. As Radio Free Europe reports, “Some 13,000 people have been killed, a quarter of them civilians, and as many as 30,000 wounded in the war in eastern Ukraine since it broke out in April 2014.”[2] From the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia to the 2014 invasion of Crimea, it is clear that Russian military aggression is not a bug, it’s a feature. As Matt Cesare, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, explains: “The West has seen military exercises led by Russia turn into full-blown interventions before. The invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 is one such example… That same logic could be partly applied to the Baltic states.”[3]
Sub-Point B is The Present: Unfortunately, the invasion of Ukraine was only the beginning. As Paul Grod, President of the Ukrainian World Congress, concludes: “Since the attack on Ukraine began in 2014, Russian’s revisionist campaign of aggression has gone global. Moscow has conducted assassinations, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and a range of other provocations in Europe, North America, and beyond.”[4] In fact, the threat of Russian invasion is so likely that, according to Sarah White, a Senior Research Analyst at the Lexington Institute, “[t]he Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – have been one of the most commonly identified future hot spots and a particularly disastrous area for conflict to break out.”[5]
Contention Two Is Deterrence:
The threat of Russian invasion if real; the only question is what the North Atlantic Treaty Organization can do about it. Increased NATO defense commitments are vital to deter Russian aggression.
Sub-Point A Is Alliances: Consider, for example, the statements of our allies, who are calling for increased commitment. As Lithuanian Defense Minister Raimundas Karoblis told Defense News, “[The] U.S. is the most powerful ally and its deterrent effect is not comparable to other allies. I am convinced that Russian would not dare to test NATO if U.S. military units are deployed on [a] persistent basis in the three Baltic states.”[6] This is not an isolated statement. Poland, for example, recently offered to pay the U.S. over two billion dollars to host forward deployed forces.
Sub-Point B Is Permanent Presence: NATO has bolstered its presence in the Baltics since 2014. For example, NATO recently introduced Enhanced Forward Presence (or eFP) units to the region. However, as Sally Painter, a Senior Adviser to the Atlantic Council, concludes: “[T]he non-permanent nature of these programs is not sufficient to guarantee the full military capabilities of the Baltics nor to bring peace of mind to its citizens. Given increased Russian presence in the region, each country must rely heavily on the collective defense agreement of the North Atlantic Treaty if it hopes to stand a chance… The United States together with its European partners… must do more.”[7] Permanent presence is the key. Our allies, like Lithuania and Poland, are asking for permanent commitments. NATO must follow-through.
Conclusion
The conclusion, then, is clear. To prevent Russian military aggression in the Baltics, NATO must increase its defense commitments to include a permanent military presence. Vote “Pro” to deter Russian aggression and protect U.S. national security.
References
[1] Meese, Edwin. Ronald Reagan Distinguished Fellow Emeritus At The Heritage Foundation. Who Is Responsible For America’s National Security?. The Heritage Foundation. August 19, 2011. https://www.heritage.org/the-constitution/report/who-responsible-americas-security
[2] Miller, Christopher. Journalist For Radio Free Europe. Death Toll Up to 13,000 In Ukraine Conflict, Says U.N. Rights Office. Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty. February 26, 2019. https://www.rferl.org/a/death-toll-up-to-13-000-in-ukraine-conflict-says-un-rights-office/29791647.html
[3] Cesare, Matt. Fall 2020 Intern With The Eurasia Program At The Foreign Policy Research Institute. Russian Encroachment in the Baltics: The Role of Russian Media and Military. December 14, 2020. Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/12/russian-encroachment-in-the-baltics-the-role-of-russian-media-and-military-2/
[4] Grod, Paul. President of the Ukrainian World Congress. NATO must stand with Ukraine against Russian aggression. The Atlantic Council. June 12, 2021. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/nato-must-stand-with-ukraine-against-russian-aggression/
[5] White, Sarah. Senior Research Analyst At The Lexington Institute. Russian Aggression In The Baltic Will Not Look Like Crimea. Real Clear Defense. May 21, 2021. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/05/21/russian_aggression_in_the_baltics_will_not_look_like_crimea_778176.html.
[6] Judson, Jen. Journalist For Defense News. Do The Baltics Need More U.S. Military Support To Deter Russia?. Defense News. July 16, 2019. https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/07/15/do-the-baltics-need-more-us-military-support-to-deter-russia/
[7] Painter, Sally. Senior Adviser to the Atlantic Council. U.S. Must Remain Committed To NATO and the Baltic States. September 8, 2020.